Breadth Update

SPY Candle (Spy is better for candles, SPX has inaccurate open prices)

As mentioned below today has monstrous breadth which is usually very bullish, however strong breadth is usually accompanied by a big long white candle stick, today's candle was small. This reduces the significance of the breadth.

NYSE Breadth

Today's breadth was powerful. The charts indicate a range trading regime for the time being. We will wait and see if today's close holds, if not this was a short covering / relief rally and not a resumption of the bullish trend.

Today was not a trend day in my mind, trend days are days when the index gradually or strongly moves up consistently throughout the day. When these days are combined with strong breadth they generally lead to follow through.

Today was not a trend day, markets opened high and went sideways throughout the day.

There was strong buying and strong selling in the market today but the market held sideways.

Bottom line: the rest of the week will tell us if we should be bullish or neutral or moderately bearish. Volatility is too high to be able to fuel a crash in the short term.

OEX Weekly

I believe weekly candle sticks are ultra important. We have a completed dark cloud formation on the weekly (bearish reversal) on the us market. We also have the market at a long term resistence point.

Daily View of OEX

As you may notice I find the weekly view the most important. However here is the daily view. The market did give a tiny warning before plunging but not a big one, see chart.

I dont believe market is going to get smoked next week. Volatility is too high on a daily basis. Who knows could even shock us and fly back on the optimism trade.

Lookin Good Canada! TSX update

AD line and NYSE

The AD line has made new highs. It has lead the NYSE and global equity markets in making new highs throughout this entire bull market.

Long the TSX (XIU.TO ETF)

I bought calls on the Canadian TSX index ETF, XIU. The chart below looks like we are going to break out of the range trading mode we have been in for the past month.

Volatility is ultra low and its back in uptrending mode. Also a buy signal was registered on momentum indicator.

Also Gold broke out today, Oil looked to be regaining a foot hold to head higher. Strong Oil and Gold prices are good for the TSX.

The weekly chart is also uptrending and volatility is reasonable low on it as well.

Gold

I have been long gold for the past two weeks plus, the trade started off very nicely and has since gone mostly sideways (a consolidation).

Finally today we see some strong life in Gld. The Euro takes a small break for a day and gold is up 1%.

While US dollar is going up, gold has been going sideways and actually mildy trending up making highers highs and higher lows as of late.

I tried shorting Silver when I first started this blog and that did not work out. We had a perfect scenario in place, US dollar strength and silver and gold both looking like they were heading south together. When that trade didnt work out I thought that there is likely inherent strength in the precious metals... so i looked at my signals and grabbed gold.

Not believing this sell off, yet

The $tick's low for the day isnt even -1000, i would atleast like to see that hit -1000 with this kind of selling. It can hit -1000, but it hasnt yet today. For this kind of selling pressure in the US market its hard to believe this sell off with a weak $tick reading.

Tons of buying support at or near the NYSE's current price levels.

Emerging markets are also arent even trading at a 10 day low with this selling.

My gut says this morning's move is over done, and anyone getting beared up right now might be too early.

But as always the market can turn and change ever so quickly.

I will post if I see any changes in buying or selling pressure intraday today.

Wont be shocked if NYSE closes near 7600.

NYSE Breadth / Support Resistence Update

Below is NYSE chart. We have two trendlines in play with the rally since the Feb lows. One is broken and was retested yesterday, the other is holding nicely. Both trendlines are rather steep. The trendline that is not broken will be around 7600 tomorrow. Also noted on the chart below 7600 is an important level on a closing basis on the NYSE. With trendline support and 7600 level support tomorrow I have to believe its gonna hold (Double support is usually a good bet.

In the mean time yesterday's strong breadth day kind of held, less than I would have liked to see. I noticed as yesterday's close didnt hold intraday it hit our 7600 level and turned around. Often when a key breadth level doesnt hold it goes to the next one.

7550 and 7600 are strong breadth levels and have been tough and will continue to be tough for the bears to penetrate.

Solid Turn Around, End of Day

Gold and Silver were strong today and that trade continues to look good. The market looked weak for a while there today but turned around nicely in to the end of the day. NYSE remains on a daily uptrend. Emerging markets looking weakest, but they had a nice end of day rally as well.

No need to short right now. I remain long GLD.

Emerging Market in DownTrend!

Emerging markets, China, Oil are all in downtrends with today's prices. The NYSE is not holding on to yesterday's close which had strong buying power.

There are some quiet sellers in this market and I am ready to get ultra short. (Pending a strong close). Strong close will change a lot for me. I find we're at defining point. I am not one to say that the market is at a defining point, but based on friday's strong down move that was reversed and that a lack of holding on to yesterday's closing price level which had strong breadth, Im getting concerned.

Volatility is low and there is fuel in the tank for a nice correction, on the other hand if the market picks up here ends strong there is fuel in the tank for further rally it works both way. The implication here is the market has the ability to "move" swiftly in the short-term.

Will post charts soon.

Gold Update

The weekly trend in GLD is up, the volatility on the weekly is low as well. I mentioned last week daily volatility on GLD was mildy high last week and a breather in the upside price action was likely, we got our breather a nice one day punch but atleast it was short lived. With my NYSE analysis bullish I see risk-on theme pervailing for the time being making me confident in GLD moving higher with the risk-on trade.

GLD has now worn off its mildly high volatility on the daily and now weekly and daily volatility are low and likely aligning for a nice move. GLD is in the range trade mode on the daily however the weekly is bullish so expecting GLD to resolve to the upside makes sense currently. No technical damage has been done to gld as the 20 ema and trendline breakout noted on chart are holding well.

I may increase GLD position at the close today. I will post if I do.

NYSE Breadth Chart Update

I mentioned on friday that we had a strong downside breadth day and that resistence at the close on friday was likely as a result. I also noted that we have strong upside breadth days at 7550. We actually also had one that closed at 7600 as well. So far the bears could take out 7550 on a closing basis. This left me neutral on friday waiting for the market to guide me either moving upward to take out friday's resistence or down to take out 7550 closing support and head down towards 7300.

Well, the market has spoken and its going up. See the updated chart below. Also, important if the strong breadth we have in the market right now (10:20)am today's close will turn in to support, definitely bullish.

NYSE Breadth Chart Update With Bear Ratios

NYSE update

The market is taking a big hit with the goldman fraud charge from the SEC. You will notice on this chart at 7560 and 7300. We took out the support level of yesterdays close, the way I use these charts is that a break of my levels implies a high probablity move to the next level. A close 10+ points or so below 7560 will imply the NYSE is likely to head to 7300. I would not have any risk on trades on if this happens as a move to 7300 would likely hurt my gold trade.

My bet in the mean time is 7560 holds and we bounce back on monday. The trendline on NYSE is toast. When a trendline breaks it implies one of two things. We are heading south or we are gonna trade sideways. With the strong move as of late in the markets sideways trading is likely as the market trades off its overbought status. While we could head south I am not counting on until I see weakness in holding that 7560 level.

So 7560 looks good for a support level right now.

NYSE Breadth Chart Update

I post this chart a lot because I think it important. Yesterday's strong breadth day that implied support near yesterday's close is holding up nicely today, price is finding support at yesterday's close quite nicely as per trading today.

NYA Breadth

Breadth was strong today. Likely strong enough for today's close to turn in to support going forward.

SPX Update. Fuel in the tank for the rally to go higher

Yen has shed the high volatility off

The Yen has now taken enough of a breather to eliminate the high volatility. Wow! That was fast. I will be looking for short signals on the Yen in the coming weeks. The weekly has is downtrending so it is unlikely I will play the yen from the long side any time soon.

AD line leads NYSE in making New Highs

EWZ Coverage

Below is a daily and weekly chart of EWZ. EWZ has a nice channel on the daily. EWZ has been consolidating the past week or so holding the nice gap up. I think EWZ is set to go to atleast 77.50.

Gold Coverage

Below is a daily and weekly chart of GLD. Both are uptrending. The weekly chart suggests their fuel in the tank for a sustained move in GLD as volatility on a weekly basis is low, historically. However GLD on the daily has volatility slightly high on a historical basis suggesting GLD takes a breather before a sustained move higher. GLD has recently broke out of a small down trend, and a sideways trading mode. GLD retested the breakout above resistence today and held.

Given the nearby support on GLD, lack of any technical damage on GLD, volatility high on the daily and low on the weekly. I believe GLD will trade sideways this week holding around the breakout. However any nice move higher will be welcomed, I am just not getting my hopes up for a solid week for GLD but I am not worried either.

Thank Goodness We Didnt Short The Euro!

Euro is flying up huge on an "actual" bailout plan for Greece.

Lets hope this weakness in the US dollar puts a nice bid in Gold.

High Probability Yen Is Set for a Break

Trend Updates at Top of Page

I am now also covering the Trend Status on Aussie, Yen and Pound.

Euro Short and Pound Short Analysis

Here is a chart of the pound/usd, it is in an uptrend based on my indicators.

Eur/USD just went in to downtrend on daily again on my indicators.

Euro is clearly weaker than pound but I would like to see the US dollar atleast stronger than the pound to know I am gonna get some nice momentum on this trade.

I am waiting for weakness on the pound to short Euro. I dont need a downtrend on my indicators on the pound just a rollover on the price chart. The Euro is already downtrending on the daily again as of today.

Sweet Gold Chart

NYSE Classic Breadth and Technical Analysis

I see no reason to exit a long trade on the US stock market. See Chart.

Positions Updated

My Positions are updated. I let Euro go as I was not comfortable with the risk on the trade and felt there were better positions out there. I will be watching Euro trade keenly for a point to get back in, if that point comes.

For now, I am long the Brazial Ishares ETF (EWZ) and I am long Gold through the ETF (GLD).

For all those Elliott waves out there there is current a potentially bearish wave count on GLD that has not been dismissed. See the Chart. I like to have a bearish and bullish scenario with each trade as I find it mentally prepares me, but in the end of the day the indicators lead the way and they make the call.

Long GLD Calls

Potential Trade List, Gold, CAD, AUS

Before I layout the reasons behind trading Gold CAD and AUS on the long side, i want to note I am bullish on china and oil currently but the trade was missed on these. I do not chase trades, it is not the way to play, i have learned this over time. The market will give you beautiful trade setups if you are patient.

The Gold CAD and AUS charts look nice for a long setup. I am currently short the EURO. I think last weeks currency momentum came from a weaking US dollar more so that strengths from other currencies. I think EURO is weak just wasnt as weak as USD last week.

My thoughts are that US dollar is an uptrend so we should expect surprises to the upside not the downside. I think there are a lot of players in the USD right now so it may be a crowded trade. I have been in the EURO short for months now and I think I may have to let it go.

I think of all the plays to make here I think Gold is largely dependent on the dollar and I dont like that. I think the CAD and AUS are correlated positively so the trade to make is gonna be the stronger of the CAD and the AUSSIE.

My models pick GOLD AUS and CAD as ripe for longs. Gold makes me nervous as mentioned above. I think I gotta go long CAD and AUS. AUS looks better shorter term when putting the crosses against eachother, CAD looks better longer term. So I want to diversify.

China's a buy baby!

Alright today was a rough day for being short EURO and SLV. China looks good as noted in chart below. Weekly chart is also bullish. You can see all my charts at the link above, as always.

The activity in Japan tonight and the futures currently look bullish for tomorrow. Im thinking I jump in to FXI at the open. I generally like to buy at the close but I should have bought at the close today. Depending how china opens will determine how big my position is, if it opens strong it will be smaller as I will view myself as somewhat late in getting in.

My thesis on this trade is that FXI looks bullish so there is a high probability that china is going to catch up to the US market (as fxi has lagged recently), thus this trade should be a good one. If this trade doesnt work out my Euro short should produce results.

Trendlines on the Sectors and SPX are broken

The following is a chart that is not so bullish for the US market. However the trendlines arent broken hard. Trendline breaks are not neccesarily bearish they can also imply sideways action. If the market is strong tomorrow these trendlines will still have significance. Generally we want to see a bigger break than we have currently before positioning accordingly. The reason I am interested in the break is because momentum has been bearish on the US market recently and bearish momentum followed by a trendline break is usually a good short.

I am hesitant about the short side though with EURO, Precious metals, and commodity strength today.

Out of SLV, China and Oil Look Good

I closed out SLV trade today. SLV looks strong. GLD is range trading with upward momentum. Euro is unbelievably strong today but at hefty resitence at 1.35 ish level.

Euro trade will stay on as that trend is down and trendlines are in tact.

China and Oil look good, both are trending up on daily and weekly (china is very close to confirming weekly uptrend)

Thinking of putting on a small FXI(china trade).

Silver... Hmm

Here is a silver chart. Silver snapped back to TWO trendlines today. Silver has a habbit of trading back to trendlines before making the big move.

One of my trend indicators is in the lower end of range trading and my other is uptrending on the daily. My signal is on a buy. Basically I have to cut my position. There is two reasons why I still have my position today 1) my stop is around 17.75, which is really close to the current price, as this would violate trend lines, push my trend indicators up and change the pattern of lower highs and lower lows on a short term basis and 2) the weekly is in a range trading mode and the daily kind of is as well(hence the indicators really arent telling me there is a bullish trend here to be fearful of, "yet"), therefore given reason 1) and the fact that bearish trendlines are in tact I am going to hold.

I have a position in Silver because gold is bearish on my indicators and the dollar is bullish on my indicators and Silver was as well now its neutral. However I evaluate trades (i.e. include other influencing factors). Silver currently has lower highs and lower lows and bearish trendlines in tact. 17.75 and I am out, or SLV gets a sharp turn down and I am going to ride the roller coaster.

FXI (China) Looking Ripe for the Bears

In my experience of using my system, assuming no strong price action on Monday, FXI is going to sell off.

General Commentary

I dont like that CHINA, OIL, EURO and GOLD on sell signals and the market is looking like its running out of steam. Often technicians point to stock market breadth for health of direction, I believe in this however I believe breadth of the Risk-On trade across asset classes is extremely important. Right now the only Risk-On that is On is the Stock Market. Risk-On Breadth is weak.

USO and WTIC

USO etf is on a sell signal and in a confirmed daily downtrend. WTIC is on a sell signal and a daily downtrend may be confirmed today (WTIC chart on stockcharts updates at the end of the day, its not live).

SPX Update

As mentioned yesterday, the trendline up since the february low is still in tact and the daily trend models and buy signal remains intact.

When anticipating a correction one must be patient and wait for confirmation.

Currently we have bearish momentum divergences and bearish candle sticks (reversal day yesterday, and an inside day today). I use the SPY and DIA etfs for candlestick analysis as the opening of the ETF's is more indicative of the indices' price action.

However bearish candlesticks and bearish momentum are only relevant if price confirms. Currently not taking a neutral or bearish stance until we see some price breakdown. SPX longs are still a hold but caution is warranted because if price breaks down one will need to act fast. My trigger signal is so far above the signal line that a reasonable amount of profit could be lost waiting for a sell signal to get out. I think a trendline break and a range trading mode on the daily chart will be a good time to exit. Buy back in if trend models turn back up and signal is on a buy. As always you can check the live charts at the link above.

SPX still holding trendline but Momentum Looks Unfriendly

Update on China and Treasuries

China is looking like a daily down trend is about to emerge. 30 yr treasuries have gone from being close to confirming a weekly uptrend to an absolute daily downtrend and a downtrend in the weekly could be confirmed soon.

NYSE Analysis

I have had an uptrend signal on the daily and weekly for a while now and the trend signals are still going strong. However, I decided to do some textbook technical analysis using some of my CMT knowledge.

In the short-term I think a correction is coming soon i.e. between now and tuesday, however one must be cautious because the trend is up. Trading for corrections is not always the best move because the trend is up. I am predicting new highs after a correction. The reason I am putting an analysis together for a correction is I want to be mentally ready for one and I want to mentally be ready for the zone where the market could potentially turn back up. Its all about being mentally prepared.

Here's my chart, bearish comments and lines in red, bullish in green. I like that the MACD RSI and ROC are all making high readings, it shows me this market has muscles to flex and the market has the ability punch the shorts really hard with those muscles. So shorts better watch out and not get too excited on this correction, if it happens.

Potential Euro Target Zone

I am not a huge target guy because I try my best to let winners run and not limit my thinking of their potential. I always have a conservative voice in my head playing down my expecations of how far I believe something can run.

However, I thought I would put a target zone together so that I could get an idea of where a strong bounce may lie so that I am mentally prepared to reduce my position or cut it entirely if a strong bounce begins to materialize.

Gold with US Dollar Stripped Out

Here is a chart of Gold without US dollar (divide by inverse of US dollar (UDN ETF)). This chart is on a sell signal with a range trading mode. The range trading mode is close to confirming a daily downtrend. A breather in the markets and a rallying US dollar could be the catalyst to take the wings off of the gold bugs. The charts not as bearish as the actual gold chart but its certainly not bullish.

Gold Ready to Head South

Leading Technical Indicators have rolled over. Minor trendlines are broken, next step is support at current levels. Time will tell. With USD index trending higher the break down could be imminent.

30 Yr Bonds Almost in UpTrend on Weekly

30 Yr Treasury Bonds are already in an uptrend on the daily and now they are about to confirm an uptrend on the weekly.

Short Gold, I shorted Silver myself

With Euro rolling over this week and in a weekly down trend and ever so close to confirming a daily down trend, the USD Index is likely to be under pressure.

Gold is in a weekly range trading mode and on a daily downtrend. See charts below. I put SLV(because I am hungry for risk) puts on friday at the close (i like to trade near the close).

Note my EURO short and SLV short positions are posted in the right column.

CAD - HOLD

The CAD/ USD is uptrending and recently broke up through resistence and verified an ascending triangle. This week's candle stick has range trading characteristics, it closed where it opened (range trading characteristic) and it closed near the low of the week (bearish) and it also held the breakout (bullish).

I think this ties in nicely to my thesis that Risk-Off will be back in moderation in the next week while the stock indexes and other strong risk-on assets like the CAD take a breather while the EURO falls.

CAD would be a hold unless it breaks below resistence, rolls over, and goes in to a range trading mode.

General Commentary

To be very clear the trend modes of the various assets do not indicate whether one should be long or short currently, if an asset is in an uptrend it does not mean one should be long but it does mean that one should definitely not be short on a swing trade or intermediate trading basis. In a range trading mode, the side lines are your best bet.

What we are looking at currently is a down trend in the EURO / USD, a range trading mode in the precious metals and the indexes making new intermediate highs and uptrending.

The precious metals have had a strong correlation with the "risk-on trade recently" it seems that risk-on is pulling the precious metals up with the stock indexes and the EURO-USD is pulling them down resulting in a range trading mode for the precious metals.

This week, the Euro rolled over and burst down with volatility expanding signalling the sideways trading in the euro was likely over and the down trending mode was ready to get going again. The risk-on trade in the market recently has done very little to move the EURO higher against the USD. Could the EURO/USD be signalling risk-off is back? Is the failure of EURO/USD and EURO/JPY to rally and precious metals not making new highs be a major non-confirmation for the market? I dont know.

Maybe the Stock Indexes are in for a breather / sideways or moderate down price action while EURO USD heads south?

As always this site is a hobby and is for illustrative purposes only. Nothing on this site should be viewed as advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Please consult your investment advisor before making any decisions.

OEX (MID CAP) Uptrend

The OEX is in an uptrend, clearly. Yes, the intermediate uptrend was broken, but it was unrealistically steep. There is an uptrend line that is holding well on the OEX currently and look at the beautiful retest of the bear market trendline after it was broken.

There is low volatility and therefore fuel in the tank for a trend, and trend models indicate the uptrend is a go.

CHINA WEEKLY, GREAT TECHNICAL INDEX

I find the FTSE XINHUA 25 to be a very technical index much likely commodities and currencies versus the S&P and Dow.

The Trendlines on FXI ETF are beautiful. My trend models are neutral, and trendlines are neutral as the major bear market trend line was broken and now FXI has broke a recent uptrend line, it is holding on to a short term down trend line, and has yet to break the current intermediate uptrend line.

The intermediate trendline is close to the price, if it breaks and trend models role over we can be in for a good short, low Volatility (pink line) indicates their is "fuel" in the tank for a new trend.

Euro Heading South

Here we see Euro is in down trend based on trendlines, and my indicators. Volatility has been ticking up but has pulled back lately. There is enough fuel (volatility isnt too high) in the tank for a next leg down, also we have not seen volatility spike to the point where we should weigh heavily on the possibility of the down trend coming to an end.

What's a Silver Post without a Gold Post?

Here is a gold analysis similar to the silver post below. There is fuel in the tank for a trend with low volatility (pink line). But Uptrend is still not confirmed and we have not seen gold take out that trendline from underneath so that we can dismiss the trendline break. Gold is an range trading regime, it has been around the $1100 mark for a while now. Lets wait and see. Neutral chart with a slight bearish bias given trendline break down.

Silver Weekly - Ranging

This post is a weekly chart of silver. The pink line is volatility, the red and green are volatility indicators. When the red and green lines are above the upper blue line there is an uptrend, when they are below the lower blue line a downtrend and inbetween a range trading regime.

Low volatility is fuel for a the pervailing trend.

Currently we are in a range trading regime with the red and green lines not yet confirming an uptrend. Uptrend lines have broken and retested. Currently neutral on silver, but dont be shocked if Silver takes a beating in the coming months if it cannot dismiss the trendline it is testing from the bottom and if it cant get in to and sustain uptrend territory soon.