Lookin Good Canada! TSX update

AD line and NYSE

The AD line has made new highs. It has lead the NYSE and global equity markets in making new highs throughout this entire bull market.

Long the TSX (XIU.TO ETF)

I bought calls on the Canadian TSX index ETF, XIU. The chart below looks like we are going to break out of the range trading mode we have been in for the past month.

Volatility is ultra low and its back in uptrending mode. Also a buy signal was registered on momentum indicator.

Also Gold broke out today, Oil looked to be regaining a foot hold to head higher. Strong Oil and Gold prices are good for the TSX.

The weekly chart is also uptrending and volatility is reasonable low on it as well.

Gold

I have been long gold for the past two weeks plus, the trade started off very nicely and has since gone mostly sideways (a consolidation).

Finally today we see some strong life in Gld. The Euro takes a small break for a day and gold is up 1%.

While US dollar is going up, gold has been going sideways and actually mildy trending up making highers highs and higher lows as of late.

I tried shorting Silver when I first started this blog and that did not work out. We had a perfect scenario in place, US dollar strength and silver and gold both looking like they were heading south together. When that trade didnt work out I thought that there is likely inherent strength in the precious metals... so i looked at my signals and grabbed gold.

Not believing this sell off, yet

The $tick's low for the day isnt even -1000, i would atleast like to see that hit -1000 with this kind of selling. It can hit -1000, but it hasnt yet today. For this kind of selling pressure in the US market its hard to believe this sell off with a weak $tick reading.

Tons of buying support at or near the NYSE's current price levels.

Emerging markets are also arent even trading at a 10 day low with this selling.

My gut says this morning's move is over done, and anyone getting beared up right now might be too early.

But as always the market can turn and change ever so quickly.

I will post if I see any changes in buying or selling pressure intraday today.

Wont be shocked if NYSE closes near 7600.

NYSE Breadth / Support Resistence Update

Below is NYSE chart. We have two trendlines in play with the rally since the Feb lows. One is broken and was retested yesterday, the other is holding nicely. Both trendlines are rather steep. The trendline that is not broken will be around 7600 tomorrow. Also noted on the chart below 7600 is an important level on a closing basis on the NYSE. With trendline support and 7600 level support tomorrow I have to believe its gonna hold (Double support is usually a good bet.

In the mean time yesterday's strong breadth day kind of held, less than I would have liked to see. I noticed as yesterday's close didnt hold intraday it hit our 7600 level and turned around. Often when a key breadth level doesnt hold it goes to the next one.

7550 and 7600 are strong breadth levels and have been tough and will continue to be tough for the bears to penetrate.

Solid Turn Around, End of Day

Gold and Silver were strong today and that trade continues to look good. The market looked weak for a while there today but turned around nicely in to the end of the day. NYSE remains on a daily uptrend. Emerging markets looking weakest, but they had a nice end of day rally as well.

No need to short right now. I remain long GLD.

Emerging Market in DownTrend!

Emerging markets, China, Oil are all in downtrends with today's prices. The NYSE is not holding on to yesterday's close which had strong buying power.

There are some quiet sellers in this market and I am ready to get ultra short. (Pending a strong close). Strong close will change a lot for me. I find we're at defining point. I am not one to say that the market is at a defining point, but based on friday's strong down move that was reversed and that a lack of holding on to yesterday's closing price level which had strong breadth, Im getting concerned.

Volatility is low and there is fuel in the tank for a nice correction, on the other hand if the market picks up here ends strong there is fuel in the tank for further rally it works both way. The implication here is the market has the ability to "move" swiftly in the short-term.

Will post charts soon.

Gold Update

The weekly trend in GLD is up, the volatility on the weekly is low as well. I mentioned last week daily volatility on GLD was mildy high last week and a breather in the upside price action was likely, we got our breather a nice one day punch but atleast it was short lived. With my NYSE analysis bullish I see risk-on theme pervailing for the time being making me confident in GLD moving higher with the risk-on trade.

GLD has now worn off its mildly high volatility on the daily and now weekly and daily volatility are low and likely aligning for a nice move. GLD is in the range trade mode on the daily however the weekly is bullish so expecting GLD to resolve to the upside makes sense currently. No technical damage has been done to gld as the 20 ema and trendline breakout noted on chart are holding well.

I may increase GLD position at the close today. I will post if I do.

NYSE Breadth Chart Update

I mentioned on friday that we had a strong downside breadth day and that resistence at the close on friday was likely as a result. I also noted that we have strong upside breadth days at 7550. We actually also had one that closed at 7600 as well. So far the bears could take out 7550 on a closing basis. This left me neutral on friday waiting for the market to guide me either moving upward to take out friday's resistence or down to take out 7550 closing support and head down towards 7300.

Well, the market has spoken and its going up. See the updated chart below. Also, important if the strong breadth we have in the market right now (10:20)am today's close will turn in to support, definitely bullish.

NYSE Breadth Chart Update With Bear Ratios

NYSE update

The market is taking a big hit with the goldman fraud charge from the SEC. You will notice on this chart at 7560 and 7300. We took out the support level of yesterdays close, the way I use these charts is that a break of my levels implies a high probablity move to the next level. A close 10+ points or so below 7560 will imply the NYSE is likely to head to 7300. I would not have any risk on trades on if this happens as a move to 7300 would likely hurt my gold trade.

My bet in the mean time is 7560 holds and we bounce back on monday. The trendline on NYSE is toast. When a trendline breaks it implies one of two things. We are heading south or we are gonna trade sideways. With the strong move as of late in the markets sideways trading is likely as the market trades off its overbought status. While we could head south I am not counting on until I see weakness in holding that 7560 level.

So 7560 looks good for a support level right now.

NYSE Breadth Chart Update

I post this chart a lot because I think it important. Yesterday's strong breadth day that implied support near yesterday's close is holding up nicely today, price is finding support at yesterday's close quite nicely as per trading today.

NYA Breadth

Breadth was strong today. Likely strong enough for today's close to turn in to support going forward.

SPX Update. Fuel in the tank for the rally to go higher

Yen has shed the high volatility off

The Yen has now taken enough of a breather to eliminate the high volatility. Wow! That was fast. I will be looking for short signals on the Yen in the coming weeks. The weekly has is downtrending so it is unlikely I will play the yen from the long side any time soon.

AD line leads NYSE in making New Highs

EWZ Coverage

Below is a daily and weekly chart of EWZ. EWZ has a nice channel on the daily. EWZ has been consolidating the past week or so holding the nice gap up. I think EWZ is set to go to atleast 77.50.

Gold Coverage

Below is a daily and weekly chart of GLD. Both are uptrending. The weekly chart suggests their fuel in the tank for a sustained move in GLD as volatility on a weekly basis is low, historically. However GLD on the daily has volatility slightly high on a historical basis suggesting GLD takes a breather before a sustained move higher. GLD has recently broke out of a small down trend, and a sideways trading mode. GLD retested the breakout above resistence today and held.

Given the nearby support on GLD, lack of any technical damage on GLD, volatility high on the daily and low on the weekly. I believe GLD will trade sideways this week holding around the breakout. However any nice move higher will be welcomed, I am just not getting my hopes up for a solid week for GLD but I am not worried either.

Thank Goodness We Didnt Short The Euro!

Euro is flying up huge on an "actual" bailout plan for Greece.

Lets hope this weakness in the US dollar puts a nice bid in Gold.

High Probability Yen Is Set for a Break

Trend Updates at Top of Page

I am now also covering the Trend Status on Aussie, Yen and Pound.

Euro Short and Pound Short Analysis

Here is a chart of the pound/usd, it is in an uptrend based on my indicators.

Eur/USD just went in to downtrend on daily again on my indicators.

Euro is clearly weaker than pound but I would like to see the US dollar atleast stronger than the pound to know I am gonna get some nice momentum on this trade.

I am waiting for weakness on the pound to short Euro. I dont need a downtrend on my indicators on the pound just a rollover on the price chart. The Euro is already downtrending on the daily again as of today.

Sweet Gold Chart

NYSE Classic Breadth and Technical Analysis

I see no reason to exit a long trade on the US stock market. See Chart.

Positions Updated

My Positions are updated. I let Euro go as I was not comfortable with the risk on the trade and felt there were better positions out there. I will be watching Euro trade keenly for a point to get back in, if that point comes.

For now, I am long the Brazial Ishares ETF (EWZ) and I am long Gold through the ETF (GLD).

For all those Elliott waves out there there is current a potentially bearish wave count on GLD that has not been dismissed. See the Chart. I like to have a bearish and bullish scenario with each trade as I find it mentally prepares me, but in the end of the day the indicators lead the way and they make the call.

Long GLD Calls

Potential Trade List, Gold, CAD, AUS

Before I layout the reasons behind trading Gold CAD and AUS on the long side, i want to note I am bullish on china and oil currently but the trade was missed on these. I do not chase trades, it is not the way to play, i have learned this over time. The market will give you beautiful trade setups if you are patient.

The Gold CAD and AUS charts look nice for a long setup. I am currently short the EURO. I think last weeks currency momentum came from a weaking US dollar more so that strengths from other currencies. I think EURO is weak just wasnt as weak as USD last week.

My thoughts are that US dollar is an uptrend so we should expect surprises to the upside not the downside. I think there are a lot of players in the USD right now so it may be a crowded trade. I have been in the EURO short for months now and I think I may have to let it go.

I think of all the plays to make here I think Gold is largely dependent on the dollar and I dont like that. I think the CAD and AUS are correlated positively so the trade to make is gonna be the stronger of the CAD and the AUSSIE.

My models pick GOLD AUS and CAD as ripe for longs. Gold makes me nervous as mentioned above. I think I gotta go long CAD and AUS. AUS looks better shorter term when putting the crosses against eachother, CAD looks better longer term. So I want to diversify.